Monday, June 25, 2018

Commissioner Rob Manfred - Just Stop! There's Nothing Wrong with Baseball

Not only is there nothing wrong with baseball -

- but we’re enjoying one of the most interesting, exciting times in the modern era. Some people complain that the rise of the home run and the loss of the stolen base have resulted in a decline of strategic thinking and on-field tactical moves. Others complain that the shift turns hits into outs. Duh. That’s the idea. It’s the whole point of playing defense.

So it’s a wise move to shift the infield to double play depth, it's a wise move to shift the corner infielders toward the lines to guard against doubles in late innings, and it's a wise move to shift the infield in for a play at home but to move one infielder from the left side to the right is a blasphemous affront to the game? Ridiculous.

We’re witnessing a time when age-old traditions of baseball are being challenged by modern analytics and we get to see how different teams embrace, reject and integrate different elements of the new with the dogmatic axioms of old. Some organizations continue to steal bases, even in situations once considered to be too dangerous to risk being called out. Other organizations shun steals, or, rather, shun being caught stealing. Some sacrifice bunt, others look condescendingly at giving up a precious out.

Some organizations have had to take a fresh look at the pitching rotation. Cash-starved Tampa has been starting relievers instead of waiting for a closing opportunity that may never come. The Angels, upon signing Shohei Ohtani, had to rethink the structure of the starting rotation to accommodate the Japanese phenom. The Yankees invested in what is probably the most dominating bullpen in the history of baseball rather than invest in one of barely a handful of starting pitchers who can throw more than seven innings every fifth day.

In the infield, we see how seemingly minor rules changes quickly impact the game. With runners now essentially barred from breaking up the double play, middle infielders need no longer be lean and little like Bucky Dent, Ozzie Smith or Freddie Patek to leap over runners sliding spikes first. Now, organizations are free to let bigger guys play middle infield positions and reap their bigger power numbers. It’s getting more and more difficult for teams to field a shortstop who doesn’t hit 20+ home runs every year. Yet, when a fleet-footed shortstop turns an RBI single into an inning-ending double play with a dive into short center field and a backhand flip to the second baseman, it’s easy to remember that defense still wins games. Listen to the roar of the crowd (or the groan when it's the opposing team) when a stellar defensive play is made and it’s clear that fans appreciate elite level defense as much as or more than yet another home run.

Interleague Play, DH Highlight Differences

Interleague play has clearly shown the differences between the American League and National League games – and the National League, with its pinch hitting, its pitchers hitting and myriad managerial decisions to be made - is simply a better game. There’s just more going on and more strategy to consider. At the same time, American League organizations have taken different approaches with the DH. In Seattle, Nelson Cruz plays every day just like Edgar Martinez used to do. In New York, the Yankees, by necessity, began using the DH as a rest day for aging veterans rather than play the same power hitter every day, like Don Baylor in the 1980s. This approach has spread as fewer teams can find a David Ortiz, Nelson Cruz or Edgar Martinez capable of hitting consistently against right- and left-handed pitching, and as the cost of injuries increases.

Has there ever been a time when so many MLB teams are experimenting with so many different long-term strategies and in-game tactics at the same time? Will the teams consumed by launch angles be able to win in the playoffs against elite pitching? Will the expensive bullpens implode from exhaustion in the run for the playoffs? Will game seven of the World Series be won on a ground ball down the 3rd baseline when the third baseman is standing in short right field? What an exciting time as a baseball fan!

And this excitement can only be derailed by misguided meddling from the commissioner’s office.

Is there a decline in attendance? Sure, it’s become insanely expensive to take a family to the game. Yet families continue to go - only they’re going to more reasonably priced minor league games where attendance has been on the rise for years. It takes about three hours to watch trailers followed by a movie, Mr. Commissioner, so please don't think fans aren't willing to spend three hours at the ballpark.

NFL Football Attendance and Rules Changes

The NFL offers a fine example for Commissioner Manfred to review before implementing pitch clocks and absurdities like putting runners in scoring position in extra innings. Consider how the 1990s was one of the more interesting times to watch football. The 49ers West Coast offense was still at its peak. The Oilers introduced the run and shoot with four wide receivers, one-upping the Broncos Three Amigos three-wide receiver sets. The Falcons red gun copied the Oilers. Dan Marino threw almost every down for the Dolphins. The Lions ran a one-back offense on the legs of Barry Sanders. The Chiefs and Steelers pounded defenses with Christian Okoye and Barry Foster, respectively, nearly afraid to let their QBs throw the ball. The Cowboys ran a balanced attack with Emmitt Smith running behind fullback Daryl Johnston all the way to three Super Bowl victories. Which strategy would win out over time? We’ll never know because the commissioner started tweaking the rules.

The commissioner’s office and the competition committee thought fans would like the game more if every team threw the ball for a touchdown on nearly every down. They changed the rules and made it easier for receivers and more difficult for the defense. The role of the running back has been diminished to the point that barely a few teams even intend to field a feature back or roster a fullback. New rules made almost everything a penalty. And though scoring did increase, NFL ratings decreased. The controversy over the national anthem may be a factor but now that the game has changed due to the rules changes, and with the majority of organizations running the same type of pass-happy offense, it’s just less interesting, less strategy – less fun.

Let the decline of the NFL be a lesson to you, Commissioner Manfred. High scoring doesn’t necessarily mean a better game. Leave the game of baseball alone. It’s fine. Let the analytics, the shift and the power surge play out. Hitters just gotta’ hit ‘em where they ain’t. And organizations, at some point, will figure out how to adjust pricing to fill their stadiums.



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